Israeli Opinion Polls - Netanyahu gains / Knesset poll
Dr. Aaron Lerner
July 1, 2000
Gallup - Maariv
The following are the results of a survey of a representative sample
of 594 adult Israeli (both Jews and Arabs) carried out by Gallup on
June 21, 2000. Sampling error +/- 4.5 percentage points:
If elections were held today:
| Date |
Barak |
Netanyahu |
Comments |
| June 28 |
36% |
44% |
|
| June 21 |
40% |
42% |
Middle of resignations |
| June 14 |
46% |
39% |
|
| May 31 |
41% |
41% |
|
| May 24 |
42% |
37% |
Just left Lebanon |
| May 19 |
45% |
38% |
|
| May 15 |
42% |
39% |
|
| April 5 |
40% |
37% |
|
| March 31 |
42.5% |
42.4% |
|
| March 1 |
50% |
34% |
|
| Feb 9 |
42% |
37% |
|
| Feb 2 |
45% |
36% |
|
| Nov 19 1999 |
50% |
33% |
|
| Oct 8 1999 |
56% |
26% |
|
| Aug 14 1999 |
50% |
29% |
|
| June 25 1999 |
59% |
27% |
|
| Date |
Barak |
Sharon |
| June 28 |
41% |
37% |
| June 21 |
43% |
34% |
| June 14 |
50% |
35% |
| May 31 2000 |
44% |
35% |
| May 24 2000 |
43% |
35% |
| May 19 2000 |
43% |
36% |
| April 15 2000 |
43% |
31% |
Soon there will be a three way summit with the participation of
Israel, the Palestinians, and the United States, in order to try and
reach an agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. Do you
support or oppose having the summit?
| Support |
68% |
| Oppose |
26% |
| Do not know |
6% |
In your opinion, will an agreement between Israel and the
Palestinians be signed at the summit?
| Yes |
32% |
| No |
54% |
| Do Not Know |
14% |
Ma'ariv 30 June 2000
Yediot Ahronot
IMRA: The following is a Dahaf Poll of a representative sample of
501 adult Israelis carried out the week of June 30. While the
article presenting the results notes a survey error of +/- 4.5
percentage points - the equivalent of +/- 5 Knesset seats (!), survey
results are published as the results are 100% accurate.
Composition of the Knesset if elections held today (method of
estimation not explained - in particular, allocation of "no
replies")Results
from survey week of 8 June in (parenthesis)
[current number of seat in Knesset in [brackets]
If Knesset elections were held now?
| Party |
Currently |
June 8 |
June 30 |
| One Israel (Labor) |
26 |
26 |
23 |
| Likud |
19 |
23 |
23 |
| Shas |
17 |
15 |
13 |
| Meretz |
10 |
12 |
12 |
| Central Party |
6 |
2 |
2 |
| Shinui |
6 |
7 |
9 |
| NRP |
5 |
5.5 |
6 |
| Yisrael Beiteinu [Avigdor Lieberman] |
4 |
4 |
4 |
| Nation Union |
4 |
2.5 |
4 |
| Yisrael B'Aliyah |
6 |
5 |
4 |
| United Torah List |
5 |
5 |
5 |
| One Nation [Peretz] |
2 |
2 |
2 |
| Hadash |
3 |
3 |
3 |
| United Arab List |
5 |
5 |
5 |
| Balad [Bishara/Tibi] |
2 |
3 |
4 |
| Democratic Choice |
0 |
- |
02 |
| Date |
Barak |
Netanyahu |
Undecided/No reply |
| June 23 |
45% |
45% |
10% |
| June 8 |
44% |
39% |
17% |
| Date |
Barak |
Sharon |
Undecided/No reply |
| June 23 |
49% |
38% |
13% |
| June 8 |
43% |
33% |
24% |
What government is more appropriate for the State of Israel today?
The current government or a national unity government?
| Current |
26% |
| National Unity |
61% |
| No reply |
13% |
Assuming that the government reaches an agreement with the
Palestinians for an agreement that includes the following: Israel
transfers to the Palestinian Authority over 90% of the area of the
West Bank, including the Jordan Valley; Jewish settlement blocs
remain under Israeli sovereignty; residents of settlements in the
West Bank outside of the blocs will be able to choose between
remaining under the Palestinian Authority or being evacuated;
Jerusalem remains united under Israeli sovereignty.
In a national referendum would you vote for or against?
[IMRA note: It is important to note that while the question does
mention Israel giving the Jordan Valley to the Palestinians, it does
not explicitly mention the withdrawal of the IDF from the eastern
border. It is reasonable to assume that if that was explicitly
mentioned in the question that support for the proposal would
decline. IMRA plans to commission a Gallup Poll to examine this
question in the near future].
| For |
49% |
| Against |
| No Reply |
5% |
And if there is also a compromise on Jerusalem, such that the eastern
part of the city is divided between the Palestinians and Israel?
| For |
22% |
| Against |
67% |
| No Reply |
11% |
And if the Jordan Valley is not returned?
| For |
79% |
| Against |
12% |
| No Reply |
9% |
And if the settlers are not evacuated?
| For |
82% |
| Against |
10% |
| No Reply |
8% |
Yediot Ahronot 30 June 2000
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