The Fall Of Jordan

by Emanuel A. Winston, a Middle East analyst & commentator
August 1, 1998

The analysis by Adam Garfinkle, Director of FPRI (Foreign Policy Research Institute) in his article, "The Political Succession in Jordan After King Hussein", is well thought out. He believes that after King Hussein of Jordan dies or is unable to rule, Jordan will remain stable. Garfinkle thinks that the King's brother, Crown Prince Hassan, will make the transition to King, maintain a stable military; and Jordan shall continue as a kingdom. Although I respectfully disagree with his thesis, I highly recommend that you try to obtain this excellent piece by Email from FPRI@AOL.COM.

For many years I have been of another opinion and hope I am wrong. I've frequently written that, once Arafat and his thugocracy have an operational base, they would build a sizable army and spread their influence as they attempted before in Jordan, then in Lebanon and now in Israel.

This is now happening in Gaza and the 7 cities of the West Bank relinquished by Israel to the PLO. Arafat's power and his armed forces with his 9 secret services grows mightily - by the hour. He now has an estimated 50-60,000 'policemen' under arms, plus another 30,000 armed 'volunteers' - unofficially. This police force is at least 20-30,000 more than what is allowed in Oslo and 4 times the size of Israel's police force or any European police force. These arms are far in excess of what Arafat agreed to in the Oslo Accords. Arafat has smuggled in automatic assault weapons, anti-tank, anti-aircraft, Kalashnikovs, bombs, missiles....and no one, least of all President Clinton, seems to care. Unfortunately, Israeli Intelligence confirmed to her politicians that Arafat was preparing for a war along with other Arab nations - as before.

I opined that after the death of King Hussein, followed by a civil war, the PLO would then reach out to subvert each of the nearby nations: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait, Sudan, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria. The subversion would come through the usually poor populations who are generally dissatisfied with their poverty while their leaders live luxurious lives.

It will not matter if in some nations the PLO has linked up with the Arab Brotherhood and coordinate operations or if they will start a new revolution from scratch. In Jordan, for example, the chemistry is volatile. Under King Hussein's monarchy the indigenous Palestinian population was reasonably content, but Arafat's Palestinians had other plans. Some may recall "Black September" in 1970 when the PLO Palestinians tried to start a revolution within Jordan. They strutted around the street with their weapons (not unlike Hebron today). The King saw their intent and that they could not be reasoned with nor controlled. So, he called up his army and slaughtered as many as 10,000 Palestinians, driving the rest into Lebanon who at first welcomed their "brethren".

In Lebanon Arafat again tried and just about succeeded in taking over the country spawning a 12 year war where 100,000 Lebanese civilians were killed. In 1982 Israel forced them to finally leave, only for Lebanon to be taken over by Syria (with covert agreement by the US).

Jordan is of the original Palestinian Mandate promised for building a Jewish homeland by the Balfour Declaration of 1917, ratified by the League of Nations and the US Congress. In 1922 Winston Churchill, then British Naval Secretary, authorized the land cut off from the Jewish homeland. The British gave Trans-Jordan to Abdullah who was threatening to come up from Arabia and take over his brother's rule in Syria. 75% of the indigenous population in Transjordan (now Jordan) were Palestinian. The general Palestinian population was quiet and reasonably satisfied with their lives under King Hussein. It was as good as it gets under Arab rule. Then something happened that poisoned the well.

Aug. 2, 1990 Kuwait was invaded by Saddam of Iraq, apparently triggered by the "green light" message from the Bush Administration. (At Jim Baker's instructions, Amb. April Glaspie told Saddam that the US wasn't concerned with Saddam's "border disputes".) Before the start of the Gulf War Palestinians working in Kuwait under orders by Arafat charted every Kuwaiti military weakness and identified the location of every notable Kuwaiti. The invading Iraqi troops were met by Arafat's Palestinians (the PLO), guided to military installations, assisted with capturing and executing many Kuwaitis vital to the functioning of the country. Arafat's thugs rode with the Iraqi troops, raped, pillaged and generally helped destroy the infrastructure of Kuwait. Recall how Saddam set fire to over 600 Kuwaiti oil wells as he retreated? The Palestinians helped him locate the wells in operation.

After the Americans and allies forced Saddam to leave Kuwait, the Kuwaitis, as is Arab custom, attacked their resident 325,000 Palestinians as traitors. Many were first tortured and then killed in revenge for their perfidious attack. Kuwait expelled almost 300,000 Palestinians to Jordan. Saudi Arabia had also been host to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians as workers in the oil fields and technicians in many industries including military airfields. The Saudis peremptorily expelled their Palestinians who had proven to be a dangerous fifth column in Kuwait taking orders from Arafat, also linked to Iraq, Iran and Syria. Following this expulsion, money from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the Gulf States to maintain the PLO was cut off. After Peres and Rabin negotiated the rehabilitation of the PLO and signed the Oslo Accords, Clinton and the European donor nations poured huge sums into Arafat's pockets and reconstituted the PLO. Regrettably, most of this money never reached the people, denying them the benefits of a peace dividend.

In the Gulf War Kuwait and Saudi Arabia suddenly discovered what King Hussein and the Lebanese already knew. Arafat's Palestinians were a traitorous lot who would betray any nation who offered them friendship. Jordan was suddenly inundated with perhaps as many as 750,000 hostile Palestinians, loyal to Arafat, who were quickly absorbed by King Hussein's Palestinian population.

I believe that on the death of King Hussein PLO operatives inside Jordan will initiate a revolt to take over Jordan from within and without. What Arafat has done many times before in subverting other nations who held out a friendly hand will now be done to Jordan. Getting poor, dissatisfied natives to revolt isn't difficult. Riots relieve the tedium of every day life. Arafat's terrorists will use this opportunity to revenge themselves for "Black September" when King Hussein killed many and drove the PLO out of Jordan.

For those who happily thought that Arafat's Palestinians would be satisfied with a mini-state on a sliver of land cut from Israel, you better think again. That piece of land surrendered by Israel's political Left unfortunately will become the staging area and launch site for Arafat or his successors to take over Jordan.

The PLO and Arafat want a large State that reflects their inflated sense of destiny and self-importance. Arafat always tells his Arab audiences that, once he takes over the area called the West Bank, he promises he will make "all of Israel the State of Palestine with Jerusalem as the capital of that State and only that State and whoever doesn't like it can go drink Gaza sea water".

When King Hussein is gone, Arafat (or his successors) will provoke a civil war which will quickly overthrow the monarchy. Jordan, with her mixed population of 75% Palestinians, 10% Hashemites and the rest a mix of Bedouin and Arabs from other countries will fall into the New State of Palestine. Jordan is going to be the linchpin that will unleash Palestinians to link up operationally with every radical revolutionary group in the Middle East. Governments will fall like ten pins, with the West standing by confounded and helpless. As far I can see, Arafat is already waiting at the Jordanian city gates for his fifth column of Palestinians to open those gates as he did in Lebanon. There will be a bloody revolution and civil war which, in its violence and zealotry will ignite native populations in many other Arab countries.

Israel will be too weakened to assist the Jordanian government as she did in the 1970s when Assad of Syria tried to invade Jordan. The Palestinians under Arafat will take over Jordan with a truncated Israel sidelined due to erroneous US government foreign policy.

And what role will Assad of Syria play? He won't sit on his hands when he has a chance to get a major chunk of what he considers Greater Syria. He will likely move his forces into Jordan and complete his takeover in Lebanon further inflaming the volatility of a civil war.

Jordan's subversion to either Greater Palestine or Greater Syria, will almost complete the ring of anti-Western nations who will now control what is called the Arab crescent. Jordan will become one more link in a chain of hostile nations from Algeria to Iran. Between them will be Egypt, already under attack by the radical Islamic Brotherhood; Sudan whose Moslem government kills its Christian residents; New Palestine; then Jordan, linked to the radical Islamic states of Iraq, Syria and Iran who have shown they have NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) weapons of mass destruction and with the missiles or planes to deliver them. This isn't only Israel's problem although she is a first target. This is a problem for the world and for the American forces stationed all over the Gulf area.

Israel has played a certain unfortunate role, that of being an alternate focus for Arab discontent. Unfortunately, such American leaders as Bush, Baker, Clinton, utilizing the hostile US State Department who have moved heaven and earth to weaken Israel's military deterrence in deference to Arab demands. When the time comes for Israel to rescue Jordan, it may not have the power to do so. Having coordinated with a Left wing Labor/Meretz Government, the US has succeeded is politicizing Israel's officers' corps and thus weakening the IDF (Israel Defense Forces).

The US State Department, blinded to these geo-political realities in its irredentist unremitting hostility to Israel, will gasp as the Arabs exhibit their complete virulence to the West. Strangely, the Clinton Administration and the State Department thought that, by destroying Israel, the Arabs would settle down and cease their hostilities to the West and each other. Instead, they will have accomplished the reverse.

The Muslim/Arab crescent will cover the Middle East. That is what the State Department fears the most, so they think by sacrificing Israel, they will prevent this hostile take-over. Of course, that will only whet the Arab/Muslim appetites and make them stronger. But, the US may have lost Israel, their only competent military bulwark against the takeover they fear the most. When they should have been strengthening Israel, they weakened her by demanding surrender of more and more strategic land. When they should have been bolstering her military defensive and offensive capabilities with arms, resources and strategic thinking to raise up Israel's as a deterrent power over hostile Arab forces, instead they built these dangerous Arab nations into an overwhelming force in quantity and quality of catastrophic capability.

Despite the present oil glut, it is forecast that around 2002-10 there will be an oil shortage (real or artificial). The oil fields could by then be controlled by Islamic radical fundamentalists who consider the Americans and all Westerners Satans. They will demand obedience from the West or they will burn the fields again as Saddam did even if it stops the cash flow from oil sales. The religious hysteria which shall envelope the next war will override any concern for business as usual.

I believe that there is a strong probability it will begin when King Hussein of Jordan dies and the Palestinians take over his Government. I believe they will succeed, given prior US and European financial and political assistance. Jordan will fall first to the Palestinians and Arafat, later to be challenged by Syria. Given the weapons of mass destruction transferred by the West, Russia and China to radical Arab states, there will be a war of immense proportions and it will very likely be called Armageddon.